The Science of Conjecture by James Franklin — PDF download | 9780801865695

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The Science of Conjecture
Evidence and Probability Before Pascal
by James Franklin

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• Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
• Release date: June 22, 2001
• Author: James Franklin
• Genres: science, philosophy, history, mathematics
• ISBN: 9780801865695 (0801865697)
• Language: english
• Format: hardcover, 497 pages

About The Book

Before Pascal and Fermat’s discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654, how did we make reliable predictions? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In this text, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. Sometimes this type of reasoning avoided numbers entirely, as in the legal standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt; at other times it involved rough numerical estimates, as in gambling odds or the level of risk in chance events.

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